← 貓腳印-新莊店 0124 PTM Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at 貓腳印-新莊店 0124 PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.6%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1481
· median 1481
· range 1481–1481
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
996
Q1 1214
Q3 1392
1591
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
